When Politicians who know nothing are in charge

This is what happens when a bunch of dummy Congressmen and Senators run any country. They don’t have a clue about their Constitutions and they interfere with the natural order of things and let the people decide what is right and what is wrong. They all think that we the people are stupid, we are not,  but most adults that vote are to lazy to read about a candidate who has his or her own agenda which is what they think is right for everyone else except them.

Who is trying to destroy our Country Nancy Pelosi, Obama, Schummer a Socialist by admission on National TV. All the Demo-RATS and Most of the Traitors who call themselves Republicans.

Remember all of these congressmen and senators are bodies, their friends to the end. They socialize together, they party together, they play golf with each other. When they are together at  parties  they talk about how they can destroy the United States of America while  making themselves more wealthy and more powerful. All these people, 99% of all congressmen and senators work against us the United States of America and work for themselves. They use their children as go-betweens became between countries and the children get paid millions of dollars to do nothing, but, when a country wants one of our secrets the child then calls his parent, father like Joe Biden and tells him they want to know the secrets about war weapons, ships, planes, and weapons of mass destruction. They get that information, and the money flows into their Foundations a great money laundering system.

All these people have clearances to the secrets of the United States of America, even after they are gone from Washington, and they sell them at millions and millions of dollars to the enemy that they put into their pocket and become super rich. Obama sold this country out for eight years is one of the richest men in the world. No politician helps any country without a kickback, in money, that they will see to it that, that country gets. Even if they help someone in the United States of America, they get a kickback, half of what the person asks for.

Muslims, who swear on the Koran when they get elected to a position in government, like Obama, the Koran says you are not loyal to any country, you are loyal to Islam. And the Koran says to destroy all the infidel, Christians and Jews, and nonbelievers, the United States of America. That’s what they swear to do when they take the oath on the Koran. Remember they are not Christian, they don’t believe in Jesus Christ, they believe in the moon God. A pagan religion, that is really your murder cult.

Who destroys all civilization, and countries, the politicians that we elect to run our countries. They all work for themselves in our country, to destroy it, and keep the power and try to make we the people their  slaves through access taxation, to letting the bureaucracies create laws that will hurt the public, to chasing companies out of our country to other countries to make them Rich and powerful, while making us poor.

Our own government, congressmen, senators, and the bureaucracies are the enemy of the American people in the United States of America. They don’t work for us they work for people that bought and paid them and they squander our taxes on themselves and others but never on the United States of America.

The only president in the history of the United States of America, that has fought for America and put America first, is Donald Trump. He stands alone, trying to save our country from the traitors that we elected in the Congress and the Senate.

 

Insightful economic and stock market information

 

 He is now on record for saying the Durham report will tell the whole story in July.  

Why has the stock market gone up with the economy still in such shut down mode? Where else are you going to put your money? There is a huge amount of investable funds around the world looking for a place to go. The problem at the moment is the S&P is fully priced.  Bonds are not only providing nil return, but they may be a loss over the next year, as the economy comes back to life and rates rise, even if only a little. 

You can’t invest in the EU as they are in really bad shape, and now potentially on the verge of a major crisis, and will not be better maybe for years, if ever. The German Constitutional Court just ruled that the actions of the ECB to support the EU economy with QE are illegal under German law. That is not able to stop the ECB, but it does create a major crisis which has the potential to eventually lead to a major break in the EU between Germany and several of the stressed countries like Italy and Spain, and Hungry.  In addition, they are still not able to agree a financial plan for the continent, while Italy and others continue to slide into total economic disaster. 

The EU has little hope of any real recovery until there is a complete restructure of the banking system, and a wash out of all the dead companies, and a major change in their socialist policies on labor and taxes. The EU essentially has no Silicon Valley, the basis for economic growth for the future. They have massive Muslim populations that will create problems in the future even worse than what they already have done in France and places like the Netherlands.

 You surely do not want to invest in Chinese stocks. Not only because China is in for some tough times as companies pull out, but because you have no idea of the truth of anything in the numbers. Emerging markets are filled now with bankrupt countries that are totally dependent on China to buy their raw materials. Many have US dollar based debts that they will not be able to repay, plus massive debts to China for the Belt and Road projects which were designed to ensnare the countries into a debt trap and force them into political control by China as a result of the debt. Keep in mind that the current runup in stocks is mostly driven by around 17% of the total listed companies, and they are mostly the big names like Microsoft, etc. 

Those top companies are very strong with lots of cash and profits, and they will  be fine, but it is still unclear how the majority of listed stocks will do over the next six months. For that reason I am not forecasting year end to be above 2800-3000 on the S&P, and that could prove wrong materially in either direction. There are so many unknowns now, that any forecast is just a dart board.

 

Public pension funds lost 13.2% in Q1.  A sizable piece was made up by the stock market reversal, but they are still way behind. That just makes it much more impossible for the big blue states like IL, NY and NJ to ever meet their obligations.  Either they revise the pension plans or they will raise taxes to the point that only poor and middle class people remain, and then the whole thing collapses and they are forced to revise pensions or go broke. McConnell’s exact point. 

 

New mortgage originations are now back very strong.  Requests for forbearance are declining. What that tells us is most people got their $1200 +, plus their unemployment check with an added $600 and most people are not financially in trouble despite the press anecdotes. There are people in trouble, but the massive fiscal programs to put cash into peoples pockets is working. If they reopen most of the economy quickly then we may get through this wit less damage than we may other wise expect. 

No way to know for another few weeks. I did observe yesterday that in Sarasota , all the parking lots at all the local shopping centers were full. These are big strip centers, not malls. Home Depot, where I went, was crowded. People are back out and shopping.  Maybe they will not soon go to restaurants, or get on planes, but there were no shortage of shoppers here. What is missing are tourists. Medical and dental offices are back in full operation.

 

79.4% of layoffs are designated as temporary for unemployment coverage. That means as business reopens and ramps up, a lot of the millions will be reemployed. The problem is 40% of the unemployed are hotel and retail, and neither of those are returning strongly for a long time. It will be late 2021 before we have a chance to see 3.5% unemployment again. And that is questionable. 

If LA and NYC stay closed into end of June, then the recovery will be much slower. There are a lot of service workers in both cities who are dependent on hotels and retail. Hotels in NYC were over built before the virus, so they will be really in trouble. Marriott says a select service hotel can break even at 30% occupancy and mid- market full service at 40%. 

That is misleading in that it is at the gross profit line and not NOI which is all that really matters to the owner with a mortgage and high property taxes. It also depends on where it is located, plus local taxes and other local operating costs, and if it is unionized. Breaking even at the operating profit line is not breaking even after debt service. That is like.ly mor e like 55% to cover debt at the best case.  

 

Real estate in the US is going to have some very rough times for a while. Hotels and retail are devastated, and unless you are buying these assets at deep distressed prices, you will lose. Multifamily is subject to the don’t pay rent push by the left wing, and the no eviction policies in some states and cities. May and June will be indicative for residential to see how rent collection goes. 

Owners tell me so far, the unemployment and subsidy checks were enough to allow rent to be paid by most people.  The only place you may be OK in real estate for a while is industrial distribution. Small industrial  is at risk since these tenants are generally smaller companies that may not have the resources to pay rent and cannot use PPP to cover it. 

Office is very unclear as there are situations of no rent paid and there will be a movement to have more people work virtually which over time will mean less need for big expensive offices. It is very hard to know yet how widespread this will be, but I am aware of a few cases already. In addition there may be a move to not have big heavily populated offices in the heart of cities. We will have to see how that plays out.  

Most retail is going to suffer, however, Regency Malls just raised $600 million at 3.7% with a ten year term. That is interesting to me since it is major retail, but maybe the hunt for yield overcame solid fundamentals. Lastly, there is a day of reckoning now  for big states and cities that are essentially bankrupt.  There has to be massive budget adjustments, and there will be even higher taxes. 

The cost to do business in NY or CA or Chicago will become even more burdensome as the Dem local politicians resort to higher taxes and other costs, and reduced services in order to maintain pensions.  It is going to get very ugly very soon as Pelosi tries to get the rest of America to bail out the big Dem states and cities with her new $3 trillion plan which is not real, but is just a talking point for the election. Right now it is the algos and the money managers buying stocks to find someplace to get returns, but the sophisticated money is very cautious now, and not expecting the S&P to be above where it now is or lower at year end.

 

The left seems to think landlords are supposed to subsidize tenants and are all bad people. We all know, landlords are just businessmen whose business happens top be real estate. All real estate, especially residential, has a lot of fixed cost and maintenance, and a mortgage that has to be paid every month. 

I don’t hear cities saying they will defer collecting property taxes on landlords. Now CA of course is proposing a massive rent holiday in exchange for tax credits. That does not put the same cash in the owners pocket every month to pay the mortgage. 

Rents need to be paid, just like the food bills and other costs of life. No rents, no mortgage payments, disruption in bond markets as a result as landlords default on mortgages. In addition, most people are getting unemployment checks equal to or greater than their wages, plus they got their $1200 + subsidy check by now. They can pay the rent. Most tenants realize that if they skip rent they could be evicted other than in Dem run cities, and most like to stay where they are. The left needs to learn that what they are trying to do to landlords has a lot of bad ramifications.

 

The Fed took another major helpful step by starting to buy bond ETFs. That is huge support for the debt market and will help keep yields low and stable. It is a very strong and good move. They will only buy ETFs that are selling at NAV. They are not going to support over priced portfolios. The negative offset was Powell saying things are still weak. That hurt stocks. There is also speculation that China may try to dump Treasuries into the market to try to disrupt our financial system. That seems to not be likely to me.  

China would find that the Fed would be the buyer all day and no disruption would occur here, but there would be a negative effect on the Yuan. That would also lead to very strong retaliation by Trump and it would make the last year trade war look simple. I do not think China will try to do this as it would cause them serious problems. We are very likely at the start of a period of major conflict with China that will last for years, unless Biden wins, in which case China wins easily and the world will pay a major price.

 

Everyone is concerned if there will be a fall flare up of the virus and what that might do to the economy, and will it create a depression. My view is, even where there may be hotspots, the health people are ready to pounce, and now have the tools to do it fast. 

98% of the bad cases are nursing homes, or old and infirm, or otherwise infirm. There is a lot being done now to protect these people. There were a lot of  mistakes made, especially by Cuomo in regard to nursing homes that created a high death rate. There is some level of community immunity, but we have no idea what that may be. 

There will be few big conferences and concerts this year so if there is a flare up it will be limited in scope. We may be wearing masks in some places for a few more months and seating will remain spread for a while. There are now treatments available and more coming, and improved versions will come quickly, so infected people will get treated immediately by fall. I just do not see any major national flare up happening. 

A vaccine will be nice, but not until next year, and then it is not likely to be 100% effective, and not everyone will take it. It is not the magic bullet so many say it will be. They still do not have a fully effective flu vaccine. We will just have to get used to some old people dying from the Corona, just like they die from flu and lots of other things. That is life on earth. 

The real question is, will people go back and shop and eat out. Here in Longboat it is an interesting anecdote. The restaurants are doing well in outdoor seating, but a lot of people are still afraid to eat out. Mixed story. We play tennis, but not doubles yet. Shops are open, but not mobbed. When I was in the fishing equipment store the other day it was full with customers, but nobody except me was wearing a mask or distancing, so draw your own conclusions. The sports guys seem not to care. 

When I went to the dentist they were very careful including temp check to get in the door, but the doctor I visited had no such precautions in his waiting room. It is a mixed bag.  I reiterate my analysis from early on. Life is a trade-off. We cannot keep the economy closed which will result in far more negative consequences than some very old people dying a week or so early. 

A lot of people are now in serious mental health trouble. Sales and room taxes are not being collected, so state and city financial situations are a disaster that will have major consequences on everyone for years. Services to all of us will be reduced due to this and because the pensions are eating all the cash flow.  

Deaths from people being barred from elective procedures or from going to doctors for routine exams will increase deaths of younger people. If this had been years ago I would not have been able to get my annual physical which found my cancer in time, and maybe I would not have been cured.  That is just one simple example of the trade. Should I be allowed to die instead of someone in a nursing home. We need to reopen and take the risks and get kids back to school in September.  The damage to poor kids not going to class is enormous.  The trade is terrible, sacrificing a whole generation in exchange for a politically correct policy of we need to protect every life- while destroying a generation.

 

The EU has already said they are not willing to really join the US in any real retaliation against China for devastating the world. As expected, they are more interested to maintain German exports than to act firmly to what was in effect a worldwide attack on all economies. Trump will have to fight this battle alone, and still maintain the trade deal from January. Reality is, the Chinese need that deal to stay in place so it is likely it will no matter what happens on Corona. For that reason, the Chinese will go all out to help Biden and the Dems, as they know they can then go back to taking full advantage of the US and the world if Biden is elected. They have a lot at stake to see that happen, so expect a lot of interference by China in the election. This will also get ramped up as the administration pressures universities to stop taking cash from China, and stop letting in so many Chinese student to steal high tech data.  It has now been revealed they are trying to steal the research at MD Anderson regarding cancer so they can file patents and try to beat the US to a cancer cure. The infiltration of university and medical labs is clearly a major threat.

 

There are all sorts of articles saying this or that will never be the same. We heard that after 9-11 and after the crash in 2008. The more things change the more they stay the same. I am not suggesting things in some industries will not change, but be careful what you believe will happen until things get fully reopened and we see how life gets back to normal, or not. After every crisis there are always pundits quick to say this or that will change, but it does not always happen. Technology will be widely used to check temperatures as people enter buildings, masks will be common for a while, and offices will have more spacing which will be a costly issue for many office tenants.

 

Interesting data point.  Vancouver BC has a huge Chinese population. Around 3 million in the Vancouver metro area, and a lot of back and forth with China when times are normal. BC had only 129 deaths with 5 million people. All of Ontario only had 1,634 deaths. Compare that to NY which is just across the border. NY appears to be its own special case, and was not well handled by Cuomo despite all the press he gets. If you take NY metro out of the data, the whole thing was not as bad as the press made it seem. Once again the press failed us by sensationalizing this situation.

 

Months ago I said wait for Durham, it will be the thing that changes everything. The Durham net is fast closing. Apparently someone, or more than one, are now talking. Supposedly he has added two other sizable US Attorney offices to the investigation, and has really ramped it up to a huge investigation. 

John Dean has reappeared, just with a different face and name. I always thought Brennan was the puppet master, and he likely was,  but it is now clear Obama was involved, and may be the real mastermind. Biden now clearly knew all about the Flynn case, and just lied on ABC about his knowledge. Just like he did about Tara and Hunter. It is hard to imagine Brennan did something like this on his own. 

Obama surely seems to have known all about Flynn, as did Susan Rice and Joe. Joe now claims he knew nothing, or not exactly nothing, but sort of nothing, even though he was in the infamous Yates meeting in the oval office, and he unmasked Flynn  just a week before leaving office, but now claims he knew nothing???   He also says Reade is lying despite a lot of corroborating evidence piling up, especially the ex-husband’s statement to the court that he swore to. 

He also said China is not competition, and Trump was a racist for closing the border to Chinese, so what can we believe. Obama attacked Barr, but forgot he pardoned a general just before leaving office for —-lying to the FBI. 

Obama and his whole group have got to be scared now, which will lead to more bizarre attacks on Barr, and the entire investigation as a diversion. As Nunes goes after criminal referrals related to the Mueller prosecutors, and more things leak out from Grinnell, the noose is closing fast. Durham is going to blow the Dems, Joe, Schiff, Mueller, and Nadler out of the water in July. This really was an attempted soft coup. 

I believe when Durham and Nunes, Graham, and Grassley get done, Joe Biden will be destroyed, as will much of the Obama administration cabal. I think we have no idea how terrible and extensive this whole things was, and Nunes had it right in 2017. 

Recall the press attacked Nunes in 2017 and claimed he was the one committing a crime, and he was charged with ethics violations. That was all to try to stop him from uncovering what we are now finally learning. 

Now he is really after all of them with a vengeance, and he will  prevail. The whole Muller investigation was a setup, and a hoax, as Trump claimed. It was an integral part of the plot. Tara is also not going away, and will pursue Joe right through the campaign. Ignore the polls-Trump wins. 

When this is all over, the NY Times, Washington Post, CNN, NBC and others will have zero credibility. They were all part of a little group of “elites”  who thought they knew better, that Trump voters were all bumpkins,  and they would get him removed from office so they could get back into power. It is all going to blow up on them, and Obama and Joe will be shown to be knowing and active participants. This will change the course of American history and politics for years. The left is done when this all gets to court and people go to jail.

 

2020 is going down in history as a key year between the virus and the prosecution of people in the Obama administration for the attempted coup